[LINK] “Mexican Mennonites Mull Migration to Tatarstan”

The prospect of Mexican Mennonites migrating to Tatarstan in search of inexpensive land and social peace, as described by Reuters in the Moscow Times, strikes me as being as unlikely as the mooted Afrikaner migration to Georgia that I blogged about last year. But is it really unlikely? If land is relatively inexpensive, the polities governing the land stabler, and the peoples inhabiting the territory more welcoming, why not move?

More than a century after Mennonite farmers left Russia for North America in search of new lands and religious freedom, hundreds of their descendants in Mexico are thinking about completing the circle.

Shortage of farmland, drought and conflict with rivals have made some Mennonites in northern Mexico wonder if the best way of providing for their families is to go back to the plains of eastern Europe their ancestors left in the 19th century.

This summer, a delegation of 11 Mexican Mennonites went to Tatarstan, on the southern fringe of European Russia, to look at land that could help them protect their Spartan way of life from the impact of population growth and climate change.

“We’re looking for a future for our children and grandchildren,” said Peter Friesen, 59, one of the farmers who traveled to the town of Aznakayevo in August, himself the great-grandson of Mennonites born in the Russian Empire.

[. . .]

Dressed in plain cotton trousers, a dark shirt and cap, Friesen uses short, simple sentences in Spanish, his face tanned from years spent harvesting crops under the cloudless skies of Chihuahua, which covers an area bigger than Britain.

Only when Friesen’s mobile phone rings and he switches to Plautdietsch does the tempo change. Words trip off his tongue in a much softer cadence than High German and are all but unintelligible to speakers of the modern language.

“You know, we Mennonites always want to grow. And that’s what we can’t do here. Everything’s already taken up,” said the father of 13 and grandfather of 25.

Enrique Voth, who also went to Tatarstan, said farmland can be purchased there for one-tenth the price in Mexico. “We need 10 times more than what we have,” said the father of 11.

The “100 or so” families interested in Russia are still undecided about whether to go, partly because they did not find a single bloc of land big enough for them, Friesen said.

But his blue eyes glitter when he talks of the dark soil, mild climate and rich water supplies the Mennonites found in Tatarstan. Once part of the Mongol Golden Horde, an empire spanning Central Asia and Eastern Europe, the republic harbors flat, fertile terrain fed by the Volga and Kama rivers.

Originally about 7,000 strong in Mexico, the Mennonites today farm about three-quarters of the irrigated corn fields in Chihuahua. But much of the land is leased, and their holdings have increased far slower than their population.

[LINK] “Farming in the Sky in Singapore”

Kalinga Seneviratne’s Inter Press Service about high-rise agriculture in Singapore highlights ideas about urban agriculture I’ve not heard of in a while. While costs need to come down to make the system competitive with traditional agriculture–or, less happily, costs associated with traditional agriculture need to come up–might this be a widespread phenomenon in the near future?

With a robust economy that boasts a gross domestic product of 239.7 billion dollars, Singapore has plenty of money. “But money (is) worthless without food,” according to Sky Green Director Jack Ng.

“That’s why I wanted to use my engineering skills to help Singapore farmers to produce more food,” Ng told IPS.

An engineer by training, Ng created the vertical farming system, which he nicknamed ‘A Go-Grow’. It consists of a series of aluminium towers, some of them up to nine metres high, each containing 38 tiers equipped with troughs for the vegetables.

In keeping with Sky Green’s focus on environmental sustainability, the water used to power the rotating towers is recycled within the system and eventually used to water the vegetables. Each tower consumes only 60 watts of power daily – about the same amount as a single light bulb.

Ng knew that if the system was too expensive or complicated, urban farmers would not be able to survive. And given that he designed the project with retirees and other housebound farmers in mind, he tried to create a situation in which “the plant comes to you, rather than you going to the plant.”

The multi-layered vegetable tower rotates very slowly, taking some eight hours to complete a full circle. As the plant travels to the top it absorbs ample sunlight and when it comes back down it is watered from a tray that is fed by the hydraulic system that drives the rotation of the tower.

This closed cycle system is easy to maintain and doesn’t release any exhaust.

Ng says that such towers, if set up on roofs of the many multi-storey residential blocs that house most of Singapore’s population, could provide livelihoods for retirees and housewives, who would only need to spend a few hours up on the roof to attend to the system.

Sky Green towers currently produce three vegetables popular with locals – nai bai, xiao bai cai and Chinese cabbage, which can be harvested every 28 days.

They already supply NTUC FairPrice, Singapore’s largest grocery retailer that has a network of over 230 outlets and supermarkets. The urban-grown vegetables cost roughly 20 cents more per kilogramme than the imported varieties.’

[LINK] “Coffee beans in danger of extinction”

News that global warming might threaten the world’s coffee supplies circulated quickly through Facebook over the weekend, alarming me among other drinkers.

A cup of morning coffee could be much harder to find, and much more expensive, before the century is out thanks to climate change and the possible extinction of wild Arabica beans.

That’s the warning behind a new study by U.K. and Ethiopian researchers who say the beans that go into 70 per cent of the world’s coffee could be wiped out by 2080.

Researchers at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew and the Environment and Coffee Forest Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia looked at how climate change might make some land unsuitable for Arabica plants, which are highly vulnerable to temperature change and other dangers including pests and disease.

They came up with a best-case scenario that predicts a 38 per cent reduction in land capable of yielding Arabica by 2080. The worst-case scenario puts the loss at between 90 per cent and 100 per cent.

There is a “high risk of extinction” says the study, which was published this week in the academic journal Plos One.

That would be bad news for both coffee drinkers and coffee-producing countries such as Ethiopia, Brazil and Colombia, which in 2009/2010 shipped some 93 million bags of coffee around the world, worth an estimated $15.4 billion.

Most coffee is made from Arabica beans. They are prized for their genetic diversity and grow best at between 18 C and 21 C. Above that, the plants ripen too quickly — which affects taste — or grow too slowly. Other coffee stems from Robusta beans.

The study goes on to note that its results are “conservative” because it did not take into account the large-scale deforestation of the Arabica-suitable highland forests of Ethiopia and South Sudan.

The paper in question, “The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities” by Davis, Goel, Baena, and Moat, makes more conservative claims, noting that this is the first study performed. The abstract is below.

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.

[LINK] “Coffee beans in danger of extinction”

News that global warming might threaten the world’s coffee supplies circulated quickly through Facebook over the weekend, alarming me among other drinkers.

A cup of morning coffee could be much harder to find, and much more expensive, before the century is out thanks to climate change and the possible extinction of wild Arabica beans.

That’s the warning behind a new study by U.K. and Ethiopian researchers who say the beans that go into 70 per cent of the world’s coffee could be wiped out by 2080.

Researchers at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew and the Environment and Coffee Forest Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia looked at how climate change might make some land unsuitable for Arabica plants, which are highly vulnerable to temperature change and other dangers including pests and disease.

They came up with a best-case scenario that predicts a 38 per cent reduction in land capable of yielding Arabica by 2080. The worst-case scenario puts the loss at between 90 per cent and 100 per cent.

There is a “high risk of extinction” says the study, which was published this week in the academic journal Plos One.

That would be bad news for both coffee drinkers and coffee-producing countries such as Ethiopia, Brazil and Colombia, which in 2009/2010 shipped some 93 million bags of coffee around the world, worth an estimated $15.4 billion.

Most coffee is made from Arabica beans. They are prized for their genetic diversity and grow best at between 18 C and 21 C. Above that, the plants ripen too quickly — which affects taste — or grow too slowly. Other coffee stems from Robusta beans.

The study goes on to note that its results are “conservative” because it did not take into account the large-scale deforestation of the Arabica-suitable highland forests of Ethiopia and South Sudan.

The paper in question, “The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities” by Davis, Goel, Baena, and Moat, makes more conservative claims, noting that this is the first study performed. The abstract is below.

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.

[BLOG] Some Friday links

• 80 Beats notes suggestions that odd carbon-14 ratios in classical Japanese manuscripts and records of a red cross in the night sky from Anglo-Saxon England indicate that there may have been a supernova visible from Earth in 774.
• Extraordinary Observations is skeptical about the prospects for farming in urban areas in the United States, taken in isolation.
• Anti-Semitic and anti-Romani sentiment in Hungary is detailed, those two populations’ histories explored, at Geocurrents.
• A New APPS Blog post suggests that feminism might be unpopular with some men because they’re not familiar with working women in their own lives, drawing from the author’s personal experiences as well as broader analysis.
• Border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the underlying patterns of disorder they reflect, is the theme of a Registan post.
• Technosociology suggests that the Muslim Brotherhood’s transparent communication of electoral results in Egypt may have been responsible for the acceptance of the vote by the military.

[BLOG] Some Friday links

• 80 Beats notes suggestions that odd carbon-14 ratios in classical Japanese manuscripts and records of a red cross in the night sky from Anglo-Saxon England indicate that there may have been a supernova visible from Earth in 774.
• Extraordinary Observations is skeptical about the prospects for farming in urban areas in the United States, taken in isolation.
• Anti-Semitic and anti-Romani sentiment in Hungary is detailed, those two populations’ histories explored, at Geocurrents.
• A New APPS Blog post suggests that feminism might be unpopular with some men because they’re not familiar with working women in their own lives, drawing from the author’s personal experiences as well as broader analysis.
• Border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the underlying patterns of disorder they reflect, is the theme of a Registan post.
• Technosociology suggests that the Muslim Brotherhood’s transparent communication of electoral results in Egypt may have been responsible for the acceptance of the vote by the military.

[BLOG] Some Thursday links

• Acts of Minor Treason’s Andrew Barton wonders why Oregon doesn’t have a state sales tax. Yes, it makes things ridiculously cheap for the Canadian (and other) traveller, but how are common goods financed?
• James Bow reflects on the Columbia Icefields, a glacier in Alberta’s Rocky Mountains that’s in accelerating retreat. I’m glad I got to see it back in 1993.
• A poster at Crasstalk points out that a skyscraper in Detroit just sold for five million dollars US, about the price of a nice condo in Manhattan.
• Daniel Drezner wonders whether Gmail’s new feature letting users know if their accounts are being attacked by state agencies might become a status symbol.
• Eastern approaches argues that BBC coverage of racism in Poland and Ukraine on the eve of the Euro 2012 cup is badly overblown and unrepresentative, at least of Poland.
• Francesca Elston writes about how she makes different social media networks work for her benefit.
• Geocurrents notes speculation in Guyana about Russia’s forgiveness of some Guyanese debt to new Russian investments in the South American country’s mining sector.
• At Halfway Down the Danube, Douglas Muir contrasts and compares the Israeli and Palestinian agricultural sectors. Briefly, Israel enjoys so many benefits (good soil, water, capital) that the Israeli agricultural sector dominates Palestinian shelves.
• Supernova Condensate imagines what the universe would look like to creatures which saw the radio wave segment of the electromagnetic spectrum.
• Torontoist and Livejournal’s community both note that Mayor Rob Ford did successfully do away with the 5 cent surcharge for plastic bags, only to have city council proceed to ban bags altogether.

[BLOG] Some Thursday links

• Acts of Minor Treason’s Andrew Barton wonders why Oregon doesn’t have a state sales tax. Yes, it makes things ridiculously cheap for the Canadian (and other) traveller, but how are common goods financed?
• James Bow reflects on the Columbia Icefields, a glacier in Alberta’s Rocky Mountains that’s in accelerating retreat. I’m glad I got to see it back in 1993.
• A poster at Crasstalk points out that a skyscraper in Detroit just sold for five million dollars US, about the price of a nice condo in Manhattan.
• Daniel Drezner wonders whether Gmail’s new feature letting users know if their accounts are being attacked by state agencies might become a status symbol.
• Eastern approaches argues that BBC coverage of racism in Poland and Ukraine on the eve of the Euro 2012 cup is badly overblown and unrepresentative, at least of Poland.
• Francesca Elston writes about how she makes different social media networks work for her benefit.
• Geocurrents notes speculation in Guyana about Russia’s forgiveness of some Guyanese debt to new Russian investments in the South American country’s mining sector.
• At Halfway Down the Danube, Douglas Muir contrasts and compares the Israeli and Palestinian agricultural sectors. Briefly, Israel enjoys so many benefits (good soil, water, capital) that the Israeli agricultural sector dominates Palestinian shelves.
• Supernova Condensate imagines what the universe would look like to creatures which saw the radio wave segment of the electromagnetic spectrum.
• Torontoist and Livejournal’s toronto community both note that Mayor Rob Ford did successfully do away with the 5 cent surcharge for plastic bags, only to have city council proceed to ban bags altogether.

[BLOG] Some Tuesday links

• At A Fistful of Euros, Edward Hugh is resigned to ongoing instability in the Eurozone’s economy this year.
• The immigration of Afrikaner farmers to Georgia, according to Eastern approaches, is actually occurring.
• At Lawyers, Guns and Money, Robert Farley is scathing towards an ill-judged editorial at The New Republic calling for an untenable very partial military intervention in Syria.
• Marginal Revolution wonders why more Americans aren’t moving to booming western Canada.
• At The Naked Anthropologist, Laura Agustín reproduces a 2003 article arguing that rhwtoric on migration that assumes migrants’ weakness is flawed.
• The Population Reference Bureau’s blog notes that improvements in sex ratios at birth in Indian states have stagnated for the time being.
• Anatoly Karlin’s post at Sublime Oblivion is extended examination (translated from another’s post in Russian) describing how rising fertility, falling mortality, and net migration has helped Russian population growth return to positive territory.
• At Torontoist, Patrick Metzger points out that Ontario’s upcoming budget isn’t going to be politically fun for everyone. Either McGuinty angers the electorate with an austerity budget or he lets things slide and our economy collapses. (Or both?)

[BLOG] Some Tuesday links

• At A Fistful of Euros, Edward Hugh is resigned to ongoing instability in the Eurozone’s economy this year.
• The immigration of Afrikaner farmers to Georgia, according to Eastern approaches, is actually occurring.
• At Lawyers, Guns and Money, Robert Farley is scathing towards an ill-judged editorial at The New Republic calling for an untenable very partial military intervention in Syria.
• Marginal Revolution wonders why more Americans aren’t moving to booming western Canada.
• At The Naked Anthropologist, Laura Agustín reproduces a 2003 article arguing that rhwtoric on migration that assumes migrants’ weakness is flawed.
• The Population Reference Bureau’s blog notes that improvements in sex ratios at birth in Indian states have stagnated for the time being.
• Anatoly Karlin’s post at Sublime Oblivion is extended examination (translated from another’s post in Russian) describing how rising fertility, falling mortality, and net migration has helped Russian population growth return to positive territory.
• At Torontoist, Patrick Metzger points out that Ontario’s upcoming budget isn’t going to be politically fun for everyone. Either McGuinty angers the electorate with an austerity budget or he lets things slide and our economy collapses. (Or both?)