[DM] “The Suitcase Mood – Does Ukraine Face Population Meltdown?”

Co-blogger Edward Hugh has reposted his latest essay at A Fistful of Euros on the connection between demographics and economics. Starting with the specific case of Ukraine, where low fertility and high rates of emigration combine to produce a rapidly aging, and shrinking, population, which in turn seems to be associated with economic stagnation, Hugh goes on to wonder what happens when this goes on globally. What of Japan, or Spain? What of the rest of the planet?

So where does all this lead. Well it leads me personally to ask the question whether it is not possible that some countries will actually die, in the sense of becoming totally unsustainable, and whether or not the international community doesn’t need to start thinking about a country resolution mechanism somewhat along the lines of the one which has been so recently debated in Europe for dealing with failed banks.

That something like this is going to be needed I regard as being what John Locke would have termed a “self evident truth”. As we know, in country after country each generation is getting smaller. While we can argue about exact timing, what this falling population means means is that GDP will eventually start to contract. This should make those ecologists who have long been arguing that the planet was over populated and that zero of even negative economic growth was desirable extremely happy. But what about the debt left behind by earlier generations, will that also contract? The Japan experience so far tends to suggest it won’t, and herein lies the rub.

But this is only part of the problem, since the process of country decline, like most processes in the macro economic world, is non linear. That is to say critical moments or turning points will exist when suddenly things move a lot faster than expected. Hemmingway grasped the essence of this in his much quoted “bankruptcy comes slowly at first but then all of a sudden”. As the economy falls back, and the burden of debt grows on the ever smaller numbers of young people expected to pay, the pressure on those young people to pack their bags and leave simply mounts and mounts, accelerating the process even further.

In fact populations dying out is nothing new in human history if we move beyond the most recent world delineated by nation states. In hunter gatherer times populations occupied increased or reduced proportions of the earth’s surface as climate dictated. In more modern times, islands have been populated or become depopulated according to economic dynamics (think the Scottish coastline). More recently, it is clear the old East Germany would have become a country in need of “resolution” had it not sneaked in under the umbrella of the Federal Republic. Why people should find the idea of country failure so contentious I am not sure, perhaps we have just become accustomed not to have “hard” thoughts.

Applying the argument many apply to banks, unsustainable countries “deserve” to fail, don’t they? Why should the US or German taxpayer have pay to keep them afloat? Naturally, including Spain in this group of countries that can only now salute Cesar as they prepare to die my seem extreme, but just give it time.

[. . .]

But not all countries will experience the shortage (which is already being talked about in China in labour force terms) in the same way. Some countries, with competitive economies, healthier banking systems, younger populations, and better-quality institutions will gain the population which is being lost by the others. That is another of the reasons I say the process will not be linear. This is naked capitalism in the raw, sovereign against sovereign, with a winner take all structure.

The competition is ongoing.

[BLOG] Some Monday links

• Beyond the Beyond’s Bruce Sterling is skeptical that plans to archive vast quantities of archived data accumulated over decades, even centuries, are going to be viable.
• The Burgh Diaspora notes that for southern Europeans, Latin America is once again emerging as a destination–this time, the migration is of professionals seeking opportunities they can’t find at home.
• The Dragon’s Tales’ Will Baird links to a proposal by biologists that life initially evolved in highly saline environments.
• Democracy is still fragile in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, Eastern Approaches notes.
• Odd placenames in Minnesota are analyzed at Far Outliers.
• A Fistful of Euros’ Alex Harrowell notes the translation problems surrounding the Nazi term volkisch, liking one recent translator’s suggestion that “racist” works best.
• Razib Khan at GNXP introduces readers to the historical background behind the recent ethnic conflict in Burma.
• Itching for Eestimaa’s Guistino takes a look at same-sex marriage in Estonia.
• Savage Minds reviews Nicholas Shaxson’s book Treasure Islands, which took a look at offshore banking centres like Cyprus.
• Torontoist’s Kevin Plummer describes the background behind Elvis’ 1957 performances in Toronto.
• The negative effects of mass migration to Russia from Central Asia on sending countries, especially the republics of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are introduced at Window on Eurasia.

[BLOG] Some Monday links

• The Burgh Diaspora writes about the linkages between population and economic change.
• Centauri Dreams examines the discovery of stellar parallax and its use to determine the distance to the stars in the 19th century.
• The Dragon’s Tales examines computer models of the settlement of the Americas. The model of migration across Beringia remains intact, while transpacific migration can’t be excluded but can’t be supported by evidence, either.
• Eastern Approaches chronicles the ongoing ferment in Slovenia and the Czech immigrant history in Texas.
• At A Fistful of Euros, Edward Hugh warns that the seemingly inevitable slow-motion economic slide of Spain, trapped in the Eurozone and with an aging workforce, may be echoed more broadly.
• Language Hat comments on the NHL’s Punjabi-language broadcasts.
• Normblog’s Norman Geras assesses the moral implications of factories in Bangladesh in the light of the recent disaster (1, 2). More subtle and useful responses than a reflex action of shutting them down are needed.
• Torontoist details historical patterns of neglect of the site of Fort York.
• The Volokh Conspiracy’s Eugene Volokh notes a court ruling in Israel which allows Jewish women to pray in front of the Western Wall without being arrested.
• Window on Eurasia notes the ruralization of Dagestan’s cities as the local Russian population leaves and rural migrants arrive, and the transition in Chechnya in the past decade towards a centralized and hierarchical culture under Kadyrov.
• Yorkshire Ranter Alex Harrowell notes UKIP’s desire to not bother researching and developing policy options on its own but rather borrowing them from established think tanks.

[BLOG] Some Wednesday links

• At Centauri Dreams, Paul Gilster considers the finer details of the possible habitability of extrasolar worlds, not only the recently discovered ones of Kepler-62.
• Crooked Timber’s Niamh Hardiman writes about how illegal immigration in Greece is becoming a major problem for that country and for the illegal immigrants, mainly because Greece is a cul-de-sac in the middle of an economic meltdown.
• Daniel Drezner offers advice to novice Twitterers.
• Eastern Approaches considers conflicts over interpretations of history and Communism in the Czech Republic and media freedom in Bulgaria.
• Geocurrents notes that Uighur-majority districts in Xinjiang are among the poorest in China.
• Joe. My. God. notes that Folsom Street East, New York City’s leather festival of note, has been cancelled.
• Language Hat notes another’s ongoing blog series that criticizes the idea that all human language descends from a single ancestral language, Proto-World.
• At Lawyers, Guns and Money, Erik Loomis wonders why the explosions in Texas, product of industrial-strength negligence, got so much less press than the Boston Marathon bombings. (The commenters suggest that the ongoing intentional threat in Boston was key.)
• The Power and the Money’s Noel Maurer notes that although Spain’s population is dropping via emigration, but that the emigration isn’t that much and is concentrated among recent immigrants.

[BLOG] Some Wednesday links

• Bag News Notes examines the use of a stock photo of some Dutch immigrant youths to illustrate a variety of different alarming articles.
• Crasstalk’s Maxichamp introduces readers to the Port Chicago disaster during the Second World War, which incidentally led to a notable civil rights case.
• Daniel Drezner didn’t find many surprises with the terms of the Cypriot bailout and notes that Russian disinterest in bailing Cyprus out underlines the extent to which it’s a status quo, non-revisionist power.
• At A Fistful of Euros, Edward Hugh speculates that the current trend of emigration from Spain may put the Spanish health and pension systems at risk, especially inasmuch as Spain needs skilled labour to boost its productivity.
• A Geocurrents comparison of Bolivia with Ecuador, two Andean republics with large indigenous populations and radical governments, underlines the differences (Ecuador’s government draws its support from the coastal Hispanophone majority and is somewhat hostile to the indigenous minority of the interior).
• Language Hat links to a site describing the small languages of Russia.
• Marginal Revolution’s Tyler Cowen seems much more worried about the outcomes of the Cypriot bailout than Drezner.
• Whatever’s John Scalzi notes the unsustainability of Ohio’s current constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, legally and in terms of popular opinion, and suggests it indicates current patterns of change.
• Window on Eurasia’s Paul Goble notes that the Moldovan enclave of Gagauzia, an autonomous Turkic-populated district, wants a voice in Moldovan foreign policy.
• Zero Geography’s Mark Graham notes the proportion of edits to geotagged English-language Wikipedia articles coming from users in the relevant countries. There are significant variations, with African articles being largely maintained by non-national users.

[BLOG] Some Monday links

• Burgh Diaspora notes the migration of Spanish professionals to Morocco. (It’s close and the cost of living is low.)
• Daniel Drezner, in contrast to other writers, has become somewhat more dovish since the Iraq War, but not that much more.
• At the Everyday Sociology Blog, Jonathan Wynn examines the sociological settings of the coverage of the Steubenville rape trials. Among other things, he suggests that the search for novelty, more than an insensitivity to the victim, played a role in CNN’s infamous coverage.
• At A Fistful of Euros, Alex Harrowell argues that the British government’s diagnosis of the problems with the British economy is fundamentally flawed, with obvious implications for the recovery of the British economy.
• Geocurrents’ Asya Pereltsvaig examines the fascinating birch bark documents from the medieval Russian state of Novgorod.
• GNXP’s Razib Khan notes the evidence of substantial non-European ancestry among South Africa’s Afrikaners.
• Language Hat notes the influence of the Polish language and Roman Catholicism in early modern Ukraine.
• Lawyers, Guns and Money’s Erik Loomis starts an interesting discussion of ethnonational identity, history, and social class in culture from a book on Mexican food.
• Supernova Condensate considers the possibility of life evolving on worlds orbiting bright, massive stars. Planets, at least, seem able to form even around the brightest …
• Technosociology’s Zeynap Tufekci discusses the right of children to privacy.

[BLOG] Some Wednesday links

• In a recent essay, Paul Belshaw writes about the often overlooked diversity of the different groups which contributed to the founding of modern Australia, whether Aborigines, the peoples of the British Isles, or Germans.
• The Burgh Diaspora notes that, attracted by a prosperous economy back home, many Brazilian immigrants in New England are returning.
• Eastern Approaches notes a controversial event in Kosovo: the publication of a book memorializing the dead of that disputed country.
• At A Fistful of Euros, Edward Hugh argues that despite export success, domestic demand in Spain has collapsed sufficiently to make economic recovery impossible.
• Geocurrents maps the strong regional identities of South Korea as expressed in the vote in last year’s presidential election.
• Sociology, the Global Sociology Blog suggests, is the science of “slow violence”, of bad things happening so quietly over such a long stretch of time as to obscure their existence (or the responsibility for said).
• Language Hat links approvingly to an essayist writing about the role of women in introducing language change, like “vocal fry”.
• Lawyers, Guns and Money’s Erik Loomis writes more about the desperation of New England cod fishers. It looks so familiar.
• Peter Rukavina found the first use of the word “Internet” in Prince Edward Island’s legislative assembly (April 1996, in a speech by Premier Catherine Callbeck about the province’s new website).
• Concerns about the intrusion of the Latin alphabet into Cyrillic-using areas of the former Soviet Union are present at Window on Eurasia, whether we’re talking of the spread of Latin script and local norms generally in Belarus or concerns by Kazakh writers that switching that language’s script from Cyrillic to Latin could cut off Kazakh users from their language’s extensive past.

[BRIEF NOTE] On how the government of Spain is pushing Catalonia towards independence

In 2009 and 2010, I mentioned the ban brought in by Catalonia on bullfighting, ostensibly purely out of a concern for the well-being of the animals killed in the ring for humans’ amusement but also out of a rejection of this, a signal marker of Hispanic identity. Now, Giles Tremlett in The Guardian reports that, at a time of growing separatist sentiment in Catalonia, the Spanish government hopes to overturn this ban.

Spain’s parliament is expected on to take the first steps towards declaring bullfighting a key part of the country’s cultural heritage in an attempt to revitalise a dwindling, if gory, tradition.

A popular petition, signed by 590,000 people, seeks to have the bullfight formally categorised as an asset of cultural interest – a move that would give promoters tax breaks and allow them to flout a ban imposed by local authorities in the eastern region of Catalonia.

The conservative People’s party of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, which holds an absolute majority in parliament, has already said it will back the petition and start the process of turning it into law.

This comes as figures released by the culture ministry show bullfighting is in the middle of an historic decline, with Spaniards gradually turning their backs on it and recession seeing public money to fund fights dry up.

Between 2007 and 2011, the number of fights dropped from 3,650 a year to just 2,290. Of the latter, top class fights involving professional bullfighters or horse-borne rejoneadores and bulls aged three or above accounted for just 1,120 fights. Only 560 fights were of top rank matadors against full-grown bulls.

Numbers are believed to have dropped further in 2012, when Spain fell back into a double-dip recession, public austerity saw even less public funding for bullfights and the Catalan ban came into effect.

(This after the bullrings have been imaginatively repurposed by designers.)

Expatica’s coverage touches upon the regional and separatist dimensions of this move, noting that the explicit effort of the Spanish central government to overturn a locally popular decision in Catalonia is going to inflame things still further. (I’ve mentioned in the past that there’s an emergent separatist majority in Catalonia, right?)

Way to go, guys, Way to go.

[BLOG] Some Monday links

• Burgh Diaspora notes that Spanish workers are moving to Mexico and the Germany isn’t doing so well thanks to regulatory and language barriers.
• The Dragon’s Tales points to a recent study suggesting that the Neanderthals of the Iberian peninsula died out before the arrival of Homo sapiens.
• Eastern Approaches observes, after the failure of a civil union law to make it through the Polish parliament, the problems of facing GLBT rights in Poland.
• Could we have had a moonbase instead of the International Space Station? At False Steps, Paul Drye suggests that might have been a possibility.
• The Global Sociology Blog observes the global rise of the cosmetic surgery industry and points out that Saudi Arabia is a terrible place to live if you’re a woman or a child.
• GNXP’s Razib Khan points to a German study suggesting that only 1% of children, not 10%, have biological fathers other than the people identified as such.
• Language Hat notes the substantial immigration of Circassian-speaking Armenian Christians to the Russian North Caucasus in the 18th century.
• At Lawyers, Guns and Money, Scott Lemieux doesn’t think much of Alan Dershowitz’s many intellectual contortions, on the matter of the Brooklyn College’s conference and on other things.
• Window on Eurasia links to speculation in a Russian regional paper as to the prospects for the amalgamation of different federal units. Could there be a Middle Volga unit dominated by Kazan’ (and Tatarstan)?

[LINK] “Chinese mafia thrives in Europe”

Emanuele Scimia’s Asia Times article takes a brief look at Chinese organized crime and migration in southern Europe, especially Italy. It’s noteworthy, and worrying, the extent to which Chinese migration has been facilitated by transnational organized crime networks for their own ends. It’s probably also inevitable, given official anti-immigration policies that strictly limit migration in receiving as well as in sending countries.

Secretive Chinese communities scattered throughout the world are the real power base of criminal networks managed by their compatriots. Chinese enterprises in Europe keep up robust bonds with their motherland. They often serve as hubs for counterfeit goods sourced from mainland China and Hong Kong and are the natural outlet for the labor force emigrating from their country to the Old Continent.

The migratory flux from China is strongly conditioned by crime syndicates’ needs, according to annual reports from the European law enforcement agency Europol and Italy’s Anti-Mafia National Directorate.

Paolo Borsellino, a famous Italian anti-mafia prosecutor, who in 1992 was victim of a car bombing attack plotted by the Cosa Nostra criminal organization, used to say that “politics and mafia are two powers aiming to control the same territory: they either fight one another or come to terms”.

[. . .]

The Camorra and Ndrangheta, two criminal groups that have overtaken the Cosa Nostra as the most powerful Italian mafias, have joined forces with their Chinese counterparts while facilitating the illegal entry of counterfeits via several container-terminal ports in southern Italy such as Naples, Salerno, Gioia Tauro and Taranto.

In 2010, the Italian revenue police defeated two money-laundering outfits that since 2006 had illegally transferred US$3.5 billion to China. The criminal network was led by Chinese nationals who smuggled fake fashion producs into Eastern Europe from their base in Italy.